Week of Oct 26–Nov 2, 2026: hail events and address impacts summary

Week in Review

Eight hail events were detected by dual-polarization NEXRAD hail detection across Texas, New Mexico, Kansas, and Minnesota during Oct 26–Nov 2, 2026. Total verified address impacts reported in these detections: 27. Peak radar-derived hail diameter: 2.8 inches at Fort Davis, Texas on Oct 28. Events were concentrated on Oct 26, Oct 28, and Oct 30.

Key summary metrics

• Events detected: 8.
• Date range: Oct 26–Nov 2, 2026.
• Total addresses within warning-area hits: 27 (Ellinwood 22, Fort Davis 3, Fort Stockton 2).
• Largest hail diameter: 2.8 inches (Fort Davis, TX, Oct 28).
• Detection method: dual-polarization radar (NEXRAD hail detection).

Notable Events

• Fort Davis, TX – 2026-10-28 – 2.0 inches – 0 addresses – detected by dual-polarization radar.
• Fort Stockton, TX – 2026-10-26 – 1.32 inches – 2 addresses – detected by dual-polarization radar.
• Balmorhea, TX – 2026-10-26 – 1.97 inches – 0 addresses – detected by dual-polarization radar.
• Flying H, NM – 2026-10-26 – 0.59 inches – 0 addresses – detected by dual-polarization radar.
• Tinnie, NM – 2026-10-28 – 1.56 inches – 0 addresses – detected by dual-polarization radar.
• Ellinwood, KS – 2026-10-30 – 1.50 inches – 22 addresses – detected by dual-polarization radar.
• Fort Davis, TX – 2026-10-28 – 2.80 inches – 3 addresses – detected by dual-polarization radar.
• Willmar, MN – 2026-10-28 – 1.86 inches – 0 addresses – detected by dual-polarization radar.

Timestamp and impact notes

• Oct 26 produced three detections across western Texas and eastern New Mexico. The Balmorhea and Fort Stockton echoes approached 2.0 and 1.32 inches respectively. Fort Stockton recorded two addresses within the warning-area footprint.
• Oct 28 produced the largest single detection. Fort Davis registered two radar-derived hail diameters that day: 2.0 inches and 2.80 inches. The larger detection included three addresses within the warning-area footprint.
• Oct 30 produced the single largest address concentration. Ellinwood, Kansas had a 1.50-inch detection with 22 addresses intersecting the warning-area footprint.

Regional Patterns

Texas and adjacent New Mexico accounted for five of eight events. Two Fort Davis detections on Oct 28 indicate a localized corridor of strong updrafts in the Trans-Pecos region. Balmorhea and Fort Stockton detections on Oct 26 clustered to the west and southwest of Odessa and Midland service areas. These detections tended to occur near late-afternoon convective timing.

The southern Plains produced the most address impacts. Ellinwood, KS on Oct 30 accounted for 22 addresses. The Kansas event occurred later in the week and stands out for concentrated address density compared with the more spatially isolated western Texas and New Mexico detections.

A single northern event occurred in central Minnesota. The Willmar, MN detection on Oct 28 measured 1.86 inches but did not intersect any mapped addresses.

Event timing and operational implications

• Two distinct activity pulses were observed: Oct 26 and Oct 28. A smaller pulse on Oct 30 generated the concentrated Kansas footprint.
• Most detections were radar-derived without accompanying spotter reports. Events with nonzero address counts should be prioritized for canvassing.

What Contractors Should Watch

Priority canvass targets

• Ellinwood, KS (Oct 30) should be the highest near-term canvass priority. The radar-derived 1.50-inch hail detection intersected 22 addresses. Deploy an initial assessment team to the zip codes containing those addresses within standard inspection windows.
• Fort Davis, TX (Oct 28) has two radar-derived detections including a 2.80-inch core with three addresses. Coordinate crew routing to cover the cluster of addresses tied to the larger 2.80-inch detection, and consider photo documentation for validation.
• Fort Stockton, TX (Oct 26) recorded 1.32-inch hail and two affected addresses. Schedule targeted outreach to the two addresses in the warning-area footprint before expanding canvass radius.

Secondary follow-up

• Balmorhea, TX and Tinnie, NM recorded near-2.0 and 1.56-inch radar detections respectively but no mapped addresses within the warning-area footprints. Use these detections to inform regional canvass zones if crews are already operating nearby.
• Willmar, MN and Flying H, NM had smaller footprints and no address intersections. Monitor for insurance claims or late spotter reports before allocating dedicated crews.

Operational notes for deployment

• Prioritize routes that reduce deadhead time between Fort Davis and nearby service centers when combining runs for the two Fort Davis detections.
• For Ellinwood, plan a high-density canvass day. Allocate two-person assessment teams and bring mobile documentation equipment to maximize inspections per hour.
• Keep routing flexible. Radar-derived hail cores can be compact. Begin with addresses inside the warning-area polygons before expanding outward.

Final note on verification and timing

Address counts here reflect intersections of warning-area footprints with mapped addresses detected by radar. Field verification remains the definitive confirmation. Sequence canvass work so that higher-address-count footprints are inspected within 48–72 hours when possible.

Forward-looking note on atmospheric setup for the coming week

Model guidance is indicating a weakening shortwave over the western CONUS early in the week with a reinforcing trough over the central Plains midweek. That setup favors renewed scattered convective risk across the southern Plains by mid- to late-week. Monitor updated regional forecast discussions and convective outlooks for final timing and the potential for hail-producing storms.