Q3 2025 Hail Market Analysis: Where Exposure Piled Up

Quarter in Numbers

Q3 2025 produced 4,793 qualifying hail events across the United States. Those events covered 54,304,178 warning-area addresses. Peak confirmed hail reached 4.0 inches. Average confirmed hail across the quarter measured 1.26 inches.

The quarter stayed busy from July through September. The load was spread across thousands of storms rather than a few isolated outbreaks. For contractors, that means the work was not confined to one short burst in one state. It moved across multiple metro corridors and kept the address counts high through the quarter.

The size mix also stayed practical for exterior crews. The average confirmed hail of 1.26 inches points to a quarter dominated by roof, siding, and gutter claims rather than a handful of extreme events. The 4.0-inch peak sat at the top end, but most of the exposure came from the broad middle of the distribution.

Top Markets by Activity

Colorado Springs, CO led the quarter by warning-area address exposure. The market saw 22 events and 1,436,827 addresses. Peak confirmed hail reached 2.5 inches. That volume put Colorado Springs at the front of the list for repeated crew movement and repeat canvass coverage.

Phoenix, AZ followed with 2 events and 1,367,618 addresses. Peak confirmed hail was 1.0 inch. The address count was high relative to event count, which points to large warning footprints over dense suburban coverage.

Chicago, IL recorded 2 events and 1,315,123 addresses. Peak confirmed hail reached 1.3 inches. The metro placed near the top by exposure even with a short event count.

Tolleson, AZ had 1 event and 1,126,428 addresses. Peak confirmed hail was 1.0 inch. The single event carried a large warning area across the west side of the Phoenix metro.

Woodbury, MN logged 1 event and 1,084,445 addresses. Peak confirmed hail was 1.0 inch. The exposure was concentrated in one storm footprint, not a series of smaller hits.

Wake Forest, NC posted 1 event and 1,037,228 addresses. Peak confirmed hail was 1.0 inch. The market crossed the 1 million address mark with a single event.

Wichita, KS recorded 4 events and 917,615 addresses. Peak confirmed hail reached 2.8 inches. Wichita carried one of the larger hail sizes in the top 10 and did it with a modest event count.

Scottsdale, AZ had 2 events and 901,019 addresses. Peak confirmed hail was 1.5 inches. The metro stayed in the upper tier of exposure with limited storm frequency.

East Boston, MA recorded 1 event and 851,206 addresses. Peak confirmed hail was 1.0 inch. The address total placed the market in the top 10 on a single event.

Peoria, AZ rounded out the list with 2 events and 740,731 addresses. Peak confirmed hail reached 1.5 inches. Like the rest of the Phoenix-area markets, the exposure reflected broad warning coverage across dense development.

The top 10 markets show a split between repeated-event metros and one-off high-footprint storms. Colorado Springs and Wichita carried multiple hail events. Phoenix, Tolleson, Scottsdale, and Peoria showed how one metro cluster can absorb large address counts across several adjacent cities. Chicago, Woodbury, Wake Forest, and East Boston each made the list on limited event totals.

Regional Distribution

The quarter’s exposure clustered in several clear market groupings.

The Phoenix metro cluster stood out first. Phoenix, Tolleson, Scottsdale, and Peoria combined for 6 events and 4,135,796 addresses. Peak hail across those markets ranged from 1.0 inch to 1.5 inches, with Scottsdale reaching 1.5 inches and Peoria reaching 1.5 inches. Tolleson alone carried 1,126,428 addresses on one event. Phoenix added 1,367,618 addresses. For crews already working the West Valley and east side suburbs, the quarter offered a steady set of warning-area footprints without relying on extreme hail size.

Colorado Springs stood apart as a repeated-event market. The city posted 22 events and 1,436,827 addresses. No other metro in the top 10 matched that event count. The footprint stayed active through the quarter and gave the market a long run of hail-related activity.

The Midwest side of the list was led by Chicago, Woodbury, and Wichita. Chicago brought 1,315,123 addresses on 2 events. Woodbury added 1,084,445 addresses on 1 event. Wichita posted 917,615 addresses on 4 events and produced the strongest top-end hail size in that group at 2.8 inches. The mix points to a region where both broad coverage and higher hail size were present.

The East Coast entry came from East Boston, which reached 851,206 addresses on a single event. Wake Forest added 1,037,228 addresses on one event. Those two markets show that exposure was not limited to the central U.S. The quarter reached major coastal and suburban population centers as well.

The address totals also show how storm work can stack inside a few metro corridors. Arizona alone placed four cities in the top 10. Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Colorado each had at least one city on the list. That spread matters for crew routing because it kept work tied to separate metro systems rather than a single contiguous storm lane.

What This Means for Deployment

For roofing and exterior contractors, Q3 2025 favored a mixed deployment plan. The quarter did not reward a single-state stance. It rewarded crews that could move between repeated-event markets and one-off high-exposure metros.

Colorado Springs should stay near the front of any queue. Twenty-two events in one quarter is a different operating pattern from a single large storm. It supports follow-up canvass work, return visits, and extended claim-cycle coverage.

Phoenix and its nearby cities deserve separate treatment as one working corridor. Phoenix, Tolleson, Scottsdale, and Peoria together produced more than 4.1 million warning-area addresses. A crew plan that treats them as isolated one-offs leaves address volume on the table. The same goes for adjacent dispatch planning across the West Valley and east side suburbs.

Wichita belongs on the short list for hail-size risk and repeat exposure. Four events is not the largest event count in the quarter, but 2.8-inch peak hail is enough to push more severe roof loss and faster customer response. That market likely needed more aggressive roof inspection coverage than the average 1.26-inch quarter would suggest on its own.

Chicago and the other large suburban markets point to a different play. High address counts with only one or two events call for fast strike coverage, quick intake, and tight route planning. A single storm can put more than a million addresses in play. The work is there, but the window can close quickly as insurers and local competitors move in.

Wake Forest and East Boston show that smaller event counts can still produce material exposure. A one-event quarter can still produce more than 850,000 to 1 million warning-area addresses. Contractors tracking only event count will miss those markets.

The quarter also showed a size profile that supports standard exterior work rather than only catastrophic-loss response. Average hail at 1.26 inches keeps the focus on roof systems, siding, screens, and gutters. The 4.0-inch peak adds a small number of severe-loss storms at the top, but most crews will see the middle of the market first.

For deployment, the practical order is simple. Keep crews flexible across Colorado Springs and the Phoenix cluster. Add Wichita for higher hail size. Keep Chicago, Wake Forest, Woodbury, and East Boston in the rotation when address counts spike. Q3 2025 favored contractors who could move fast, stay regional, and handle both repeated storm cycles and large single-event footprints.